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RE: [Fog of War] - Large Scenarios
Assuming both sides could use an infinite number of activation, you will roll under 15 or lower on three dice 20.6 times on average before you roll 16 or higher. This means the attacker should average 13.6 activation segments (3 standard + 10.6 extra for the failed FoW rolls) per turn.
I played 3 large scenarios in the past few weeks: 276, 242 and 186 pieces respectively. They are time consuming (12-18 hours) but find them very enjoyable.
In all three scenario, I reached a situation where almost every turn thereafter had between 8 to 15 assaults on the board. That's a lot of activation needed just for the assaults. The attacker must also move other troops forward and attempt recovery of the disrupted and demoralized units. The attacker typically needs 20+ activation to activate all units he want to activate this turn. Demoralized units who fall behind - say it failed two MC while the bulk of the troops move forward - are typically very low on the activation priority list and some will not attempt a recovery for 6+ turns despite not receiving fire the whole time.
For the defender, he will average 13 activation segments per turn. The implication is the defender is unlikely to have to perform undesirable recovery attempts (demoralized units which would have to flee an assault hex) if he has enough useful activation segments before he is forced to perform the recovery attempts. The defender is usually happy with an early FoW roll because his demoralized units will tie up the attackers for at least another turn.
My experience is the bigger the scenario, the more Fog of War favors the defender and I'd like to smooth that curve before I try something more drastic.
Thank you all for the suggestions. I will compute the 4d6 probabilities - it's just a slight change to the spreadsheet I posted some time ago - and sliding probabilities. I will also try to estimate how many activation segments typically want per scenario size and see if there is a simple function that approximates the results.
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