[Jungle Fighting] Fog of War

[Hugmenot]

It was faster to determine the exact odds than to write this email.

Start an Excel spreadsheet with 1 in cells A1 to F1, =SUM(A1:F1) in cell G1 and =IF(G1>=15, 1, 0) in cell H1
In A2: =IF(AND(B1=6, C1=6, D1=6, E1=6, F1=6), IF(A1 < 6, A1+1, 1), A1)
In B2: =IF(AND(C1=6, D1=6, E1=6, F1=6), IF(B1 < 6, B1+1, 1), B1)
In C2: =IF(AND(D1=6, E1=6, F1=6), IF(C1 < 6, C1+1, 1), C1)
In D2: =IF(AND(E1=6, F1=6), IF(D1 < 6, D1+1, 1), D1)
In E2: =IF(F1=6, IF(E1 < 6, E1+1, 1), E1)
In F2: =IF(F1 < 6, F1+1, 1)
In G2: =SUM(A2:F2)
In H2: =IF(G2>=15, 1, 0)

Copy A2-H2 to A3-H45656 and then H46657 is = SUM(H1:H46656) is the number of combinations which total to 15 or more.

Voilà.