Large Games and Fog of War

[t1M0t8yk]

I am giving some thought myself to the shortcomings of the FoW rule in a somewhat large scenario I am currently soloing.  Its counter tally is 177 and is subject to the demoralization problems noted.

  I like the suggestion to compel all unactivated demoralized units to make a rally roll after FoW otherwise triggers the end of a turn.  The deeper issue is that the FoW die roll is a geometric probability distribution with a predictable mean of 21.6.  cjsiam says both sides typically get 11-14 activations.  Statistically it's precisely three plus the mean of the FoW distribution divided by two, or about 14, and more for a side with a significant initiative advantage.

  While the suggested house rule addresses the demoralization problem it doesn't address other shortcomings to the FoW rule.  10-out-of-216 can be modified depending on the scenario.  A scenario half as large as the one I'm playing would need to be limited to 7 activations per side for a similar FoW effect.  Subtracting out the three activations minimum per side before FoW rolls commence, this requires on average an additional four activations per side.  This would occur for a geometric distribution with a mean of about 8.  The mean of a geometric distribution is the reciprocal of the probability of success.  Thus we would need an FoW with a 12.5% probability of success, or 27-out-of-216.  FoW trigger of 15+ on three dice is 20-out-of-216; FoW trigger of 14+ is 35-out-of-216: FoW trigger on 13 or 16 only is precisely 27-out-of-216.

  My point is to provide the mathematical foundation to make the FoW rule more consistent among scenario size.  Such adjustments also provide flexibility, since the FoW trigger really shouldn't be 100% consistent anyway.  I don't think there's any simple alternative, but for the math-inclined you may keep this post in mind if you're unsatisfied with FoW as it plays out in a particular scenario.