Guadalcanal Hidden Rule Useless?

[Major Sylvester]

Guadalcanal rule specify any unit moving within 3 hexes of an hidden unit have 1/6= 16,6% chance to detect it. Therefore a couple of marine companies (8 units) moving will almost always detect an hidden Japanese unit 3 hexes away (probability of no detection= 0,8333^8 = 23,2% chance). Probability of not detecting the japanese unit 1 hex, 2 hexes or 3 hexes away =0,232^3=1,3%= negligible.
If at least 8 marines units are moving near a hidden japanese unit the hidden unit will (almost) alway be detected so why keeping this rule?

Shouldn't we roll for detection only once for each when it moves within in the 3 hex range but not when it moves closer. Or only once per hex entered. Otherwise the possibility of ambush is just too low.

[Shad]

Have you played any Guadalcanal scenarios? It's not often that you're going to have so many platoons moving in an unmolested and orderly fashion through the jungle. Case in point, your officers can only control platoons in the same hex. That means at most you're going to be moving 3 platoons in one activation (if you triple-stack). And triple-stacking is just asking for punishment because of the negative modifier you suffer during incoming fire. Also, your math assumes an 8 to 1 force disparity. That is exceedingly rare.

My typical experience with the hidden unit rules is that the JPN stay hidden until they want to reveal themselves, but rarely have a chance to hide a second time during battle.

[Major Sylvester]

Have you played any Guadalcanal scenarios? It's not often that you're going to have so many platoons moving in an unmolested and orderly fashion through the jungle. Case in point, your officers can only control platoons in the same hex. That means at most you're going to be moving 3 platoons in one activation (if you triple-stack). And triple-stacking is just asking for punishment because of the negative modifier you suffer during incoming fire. Also, your math assumes an 8 to 1 force disparity. That is exceedingly rare.

My typical experience with the hidden unit rules is that the JPN stay hidden until they want to reveal themselves, but rarely have a chance to hide a second time during battle.

I spend the last 4 weeks playing Guadalcanal but I don't think I am an expert about the rules, maybe I missed something and I'm trying to figure what. I didn't say I moved all the platoons in one activation I needed at least 3 activation to move a couple of companies around and 3 turns to move adjacent to hidden jap. My point is that by concentrating the axis of advance you can get pretty much immune to ambush by hidden japs whatever their numbers.
Also I don't have to assume a 8 to one superiority. If more japs are hidden then I have more probability of detection. I think all I have to assume is at the start of the game no hidden japs are within 3 hex range of an american unit so I can move a lot of bodies around before getting ambushed. About triple stacking well the japs don't have so much firepower and I can negate the penalty with the jungle bonus of +1. When playing the american in the jungle I really like to concentrate maximum firepower during one activation... Maybe I didn't get my nose bloodied enough...

[Shad]

Scenario selection may also have played a role. Guadalcanal is all about grinding down the JPN with vastly superior men and material, as it was historically.

Kokoda Trail, on the other hand, usually sees the Allies running for their very lives... at least in the opening stages.